Our model gives Tampa Bay Rowdies a 72% chance to win this one, against 18% for a draw and 10% for Birmingham Legion.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 62% likelihood against 38% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Tampa Bay Rowdies have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Birmingham Legion have done so in 1 of their last 2.