Our model gives Tallinna Kalev a 13% chance to win this one, against 14% for a draw and 73% for Tartu Welco.

Both teams are projected to score in 67% of simulations, against 33% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 80% likelihood against 20% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Tallinna Kalev have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Tartu Welco have done so in 4 of their last 4.