Our model gives Tallinna Kalev a 34% chance to win this one, against 20% for a draw and 45% for Flora II.

Both teams are projected to score in 72% of simulations, against 28% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 77% likelihood against 23% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Tallinna Kalev have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Flora II have done so in 3 of their last 4.