Our model gives Tallinna Kalev a 31% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 48% for Elva.

Both teams are projected to score in 71% of simulations, against 29% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 76% likelihood against 24% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Tallinna Kalev have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Elva have done so in 2 of their last 4.