Our model gives Swindon Town a 50% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Port Vale.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 54% likelihood against 46% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Swindon Town have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Port Vale have done so in 1 of their last 2.