Our model gives Swindon Town a 48% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Cheltenham Town.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Swindon Town have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Cheltenham Town have done so in 2 of their last 2.