Our model gives Suva a 64% chance to win this one, against 18% for a draw and 18% for Nadroga.

Both teams are projected to score in 63% of simulations, against 37% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 70% likelihood against 30% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Suva have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Nadroga have done so in 2 of their last 3.