Our model gives Surkhon Termez a 30% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 43% for Kokand-1912.

Both teams are projected to score in 49% of simulations, against 51% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 43% likelihood against 57% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Surkhon Termez have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 4, and Kokand-1912 have done so in 2 of their last 4.