Our model gives Supra du Québec a 35% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 39% for Atlético Ottawa.

Both teams are projected to score in 60% of simulations, against 40% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 56% likelihood against 44% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Supra du Québec have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Atlético Ottawa have done so in 4 of their last 4.