Our model gives Sumqayıt a 18% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 61% for Qarabağ.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Qarabağ have done so in 0 of their last 3.