Our model gives Sumqayıt a 19% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 56% for Neftçi.

Both teams are projected to score in 49% of simulations, against 51% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 48% likelihood against 52% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Neftçi have done so in 0 of their last 1.