Our model gives Stranraer a 55% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Kelty Hearts.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 52% likelihood against 48% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Stranraer have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Kelty Hearts have done so in 3 of their last 4.