Our model gives Stoke City U21 a 42% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 37% for Leeds United U21.

Both teams are projected to score in 63% of simulations, against 37% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 67% likelihood against 33% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Stoke City U21 have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Leeds United U21 have done so in 0 of their last 1.