Our model gives Stoke City a 39% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Swansea City.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 54% likelihood against 46% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Stoke City have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Swansea City have done so in 1 of their last 2.