Our model gives Stoke City a 38% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 37% for Sheffield United.

Both teams are projected to score in 58% of simulations, against 42% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 54% likelihood against 46% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Stoke City have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Sheffield United have done so in 1 of their last 1.