Our model gives Stockton Town a 39% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Leek Town.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 47% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 49% likelihood against 51% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Stockton Town have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 3, and Leek Town have done so in 1 of their last 3.