Our model gives Stenungsund a 44% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 32% for Kumla.

Both teams are projected to score in 58% of simulations, against 42% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 58% likelihood against 42% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Stenungsund have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Kumla have done so in 2 of their last 3.