Our model gives Stal Mielec a 39% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Polonia Bytom.

Both teams are projected to score in 62% of simulations, against 38% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 59% likelihood against 41% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Stal Mielec have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Polonia Bytom have done so in 2 of their last 2.