Our model gives Stade Payerne a 44% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 34% for Lancy.

Both teams are projected to score in 62% of simulations, against 38% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 63% likelihood against 37% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Stade Payerne have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Lancy have done so in 0 of their last 1.