Our model gives Stade Nyonnais a 33% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 42% for Winterthur.

Both teams are projected to score in 59% of simulations, against 41% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 58% likelihood against 42% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Stade Nyonnais have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Winterthur have done so in 2 of their last 3.