Our model gives St. Louis City a 55% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Toronto.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 52% likelihood against 48% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, St. Louis City have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Toronto have done so in 1 of their last 2.