Our model gives St. Louis City a 52% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Dallas.

Both teams are projected to score in 57% of simulations, against 43% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 57% likelihood against 43% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, St. Louis City have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Dallas have done so in 0 of their last 2.