Our model gives St. Johnstone a 57% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Kilmarnock.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 53% likelihood against 47% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, St. Johnstone have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Kilmarnock have done so in 3 of their last 4.