Our model gives Sportivo Trinidense a 39% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 32% for 2 de Mayo.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Sportivo Trinidense have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and 2 de Mayo have done so in 2 of their last 4.