Our model gives Sportivo San Lorenzo a 14% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 61% for Nacional Asunción.

Both teams are projected to score in 41% of simulations, against 59% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 41% likelihood against 59% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Sportivo San Lorenzo have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 4, and Nacional Asunción have done so in 1 of their last 4.