Our model gives Sportivo San Lorenzo a 23% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 48% for Guaraní.

Both teams are projected to score in 43% of simulations, against 57% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 36% likelihood against 64% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Sportivo San Lorenzo have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Guaraní have done so in 1 of their last 1.