Our model gives Sportivo Carapeguá a 36% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Paraguarí.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 46% likelihood against 54% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Sportivo Carapeguá have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Paraguarí have done so in 1 of their last 3.