Our model gives Sportist Svoge a 49% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Nesebar.

Both teams are projected to score in 49% of simulations, against 51% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 48% likelihood against 52% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Sportist Svoge have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Nesebar have done so in 2 of their last 3.