Our model gives Sporting Cristal a 76% chance to win this one, against 15% for a draw and 8% for Los Chankas.

Both teams are projected to score in 45% of simulations, against 55% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 60% likelihood against 40% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Sporting Cristal have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 4, and Los Chankas have done so in 1 of their last 2.