Our model gives Sport Recife a 51% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Londrina.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 50% likelihood against 50% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Sport Recife have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Londrina have done so in 2 of their last 3.