Our model gives Sport Recife a 53% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 18% for Juventude.

Both teams are projected to score in 47% of simulations, against 53% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 43% likelihood against 57% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Sport Recife have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Juventude have done so in 0 of their last 4.