Our model gives Sport Huancayo II a 57% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Santos.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Sport Huancayo II have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Santos have done so in 0 of their last 3.