Our model gives Sport Boys a 56% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Cienciano.

Both teams are projected to score in 48% of simulations, against 52% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 46% likelihood against 54% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Sport Boys have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 3, and Cienciano have done so in 2 of their last 5.