Our model gives Spennymoor Town a 47% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 30% for Merthyr Town.

Both teams are projected to score in 61% of simulations, against 39% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 60% likelihood against 40% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Spennymoor Town have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Merthyr Town have done so in 1 of their last 2.