Our model gives Spartans a 39% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Elgin City.

Both teams are projected to score in 59% of simulations, against 41% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 57% likelihood against 43% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Spartans have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Elgin City have done so in 3 of their last 4.