Our model gives Spartak Varna a 30% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 43% for Lokomotiv Sofia 1929.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 48% likelihood against 52% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Spartak Varna have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 have done so in 2 of their last 3.