Our model gives Spartak Varna a 45% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 50% likelihood against 50% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Spartak Varna have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Lokomotiv Plovdiv have done so in 1 of their last 3.