Our model gives Spartak Moskva a 35% chance to win this one, against 29% for a draw and 36% for Zenit.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 47% likelihood against 53% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Spartak Moskva have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 4, and Zenit have done so in 3 of their last 4.