Our model gives Spartak Moskva a 65% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 13% for Rodina Moskva.

Both teams are projected to score in 43% of simulations, against 57% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 46% likelihood against 54% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Spartak Moskva have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Rodina Moskva have done so in 1 of their last 1.