Our model gives Spartak Moskva a 61% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 18% for Orenburg.

Both teams are projected to score in 47% of simulations, against 53% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 55% likelihood against 45% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Spartak Moskva have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 4, and Orenburg have done so in 3 of their last 5.