Our model gives Spartak Moskva a 51% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Krasnodar.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 52% likelihood against 48% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Spartak Moskva have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 4, and Krasnodar have done so in 3 of their last 4.