Our model gives Spartak Moskva a 69% chance to win this one, against 20% for a draw and 11% for Fakel.

Both teams are projected to score in 40% of simulations, against 60% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 48% likelihood against 52% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Spartak Moskva have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 4, and Fakel have done so in 2 of their last 5.