Our model gives Spartak Kostroma a 39% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Chelyabinsk.

Both teams are projected to score in 46% of simulations, against 54% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 42% likelihood against 58% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Spartak Kostroma have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Chelyabinsk have done so in 3 of their last 4.