Our model gives Sparta Praha a 50% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 27% for Olympique Lyonnais.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 55% likelihood against 45% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Sparta Praha have gone over 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 6, and Olympique Lyonnais have done so in 2 of their last 2.