Our model gives Spalding United a 48% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 28% for Southport.

Both teams are projected to score in 60% of simulations, against 40% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 59% likelihood against 41% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Spalding United have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Southport have done so in 1 of their last 2.