Our model gives Spakenburg a 39% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 40% for Katwijk.

Both teams are projected to score in 66% of simulations, against 34% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 66% likelihood against 34% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Spakenburg have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Katwijk have done so in 0 of their last 1.