Our model gives Spakenburg a 44% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 35% for Jong Sparta.

Both teams are projected to score in 70% of simulations, against 30% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 71% likelihood against 29% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Spakenburg have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Jong Sparta have done so in 1 of their last 1.