Our model gives South Melbourne a 27% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 50% for Heidelberg United.

Both teams are projected to score in 61% of simulations, against 39% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 62% likelihood against 38% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, South Melbourne have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Heidelberg United have done so in 2 of their last 3.