Our model gives Sorrento a 13% chance to win this one, against 16% for a draw and 71% for Perth RedStar.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 65% likelihood against 35% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Sorrento have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Perth RedStar have done so in 0 of their last 2.