Our model gives Sol de América a 49% chance to win this one, against 30% for a draw and 20% for Bartolomé Mitre.

Both teams are projected to score in 37% of simulations, against 63% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 31% likelihood against 69% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Sol de América have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Bartolomé Mitre have done so in 0 of their last 3.